Now that we have reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, I’m sure you, like the rest of the sports world, are on the edge of your seat wondering: “Where is Marion’s love for March Madness?” But now that Cleveland State has thoroughly decimated not just my bracket but my general outlook on life by trouncing a lackadaisical Wake Forest team, I’d like to put your minds at ease and give my predictions for the rounds that count. Because if revising your predictions with every round is good enough for ESPN, it’s definitely good enough for me.
The Midwest:
I like Louisville to cruise into the Final Four. Arizona, a 12 seed, is now playing with house money and they know it. Their coach knows he will not be back next year even if he wins the national title, and after a nice upset win in the first round over Utah and after cleaning up Wake Forest’s mess by taking out America’s newest basketball juggernaut, Cleveland State, it is about time their season fades to black. They have no answer for Terrance Williams who can light you up by taking it to the basket or by hitting jumpshots from the outside. Combine that with Louisville’s tenacious defense, and I don’t see them keeping the final margin in single digits.
I also think Louisville will have little trouble with Michigan State who I see getting by Kansas in the round of 16. Michigan State’s strength lies in their athleticism, but Louisville is one of only a handful of teams who can match that athleticism. This game will be a nail-biter, as we’re talking about a matchup of two coaches who have won national titles. In the end though, I think that Louisville is just way too talented.
The West:
Here is the one region where I actually picked all four Sweet Sixteen teams. Connecticut may be playing as well as anyone in the tournament through the first two rounds. And despite the distraction created by recent allegations about improprieties regarding their recruitment of a player, I think they have enough to get by Purdue.
I do not think that they have enough to beat Memphis (who beats Missouri in a close one) in the elite eight, however. Memphis is a very efficient basketball team that shoots a high percentage and forces opponents to shoot a low one. And while you could certainly argue that Memphis is out of their league after tuning up for this game with Conference USA competition while UConn lost only twice while playing in arguably the best conference ever, the 2009 Big East, I think Memphis will pull it out. John Calipari always gets his kids ready to play, and after losing in last year’s title game, this Memphis team is hungry to finish the job. Further, I think that the this recent scandal along with losing Jerome Dyson early in the year will finally catch up with the Huskies and lead to a surprisingly lopsided score.
The East:
I think this is the most interesting bracket. I still like Pittsburgh despite almost losing each of their first two games. Senior Sam Young is playing inspired ball right now, including pouring in 32 points in a down to the wire victory over Oklahoma State in the 2nd round. Combine Young with Co-Big East Player of the Year, Dejaun Blair, and I don’t see anyone stopping them from reaching the Motor City and the Final Four. In the Sweet Sixteen, Pitt faces a Xavier team where no one is playing particularly well. They’ve beaten two teams seeded 11 or lower in the first two rounds, and have simply reached their ceiling.
Pitt should then face a Duke team who is, in my estimation, the hardest team to pick in the tournament. In fact, I considered for a long time putting the ACC tournament champs in my Final Four. But in the final analysis, I think that Pitt’s length and athleticism will be too much for a Duke team that has struggled with similar teams all season including losing to Wake Forest and twice to North Carolina. The Devils have a tendency to fall in love with the 3-point shot a little too much to win a national title and I simply don’t think they can guard Blair inside with Kyle Singler or anyone else on their roster.
The South:
North Carolina should absolutely waltz into the Final Four now that Ty Lawson has proven he’s healthy. I think that they flew under the radar a little bit because of the question mark surrounding Lawson’s toe injury. But after 23 points, 6 assists, and no turnovers in a second-round, comeback win against LSU, I don’t think any questions remain, and Lawson and the Heels should only improve from here on out. As a result, I like them to beat a Gonzaga team who I didn’t even think was the best team in the West Coast Conference until St. Marys’s best player got injured at the end of the season.
The ACC regular season champions should then beat a Syracuse team that is simply out of gas. I like Syracuse to go one more round and take down Oklahoma and their man-child, Blake Griffin though who despite his immense talented, has been inconsistent at times this year and doesn’t have the killer instinct to take a team all the way. I also like the way the Orangemen play defense, I like their length on the front-line, and I like any team with Jonny Flynn running the show.
The Final Four:
With Wake Forest out of the tournament, I now have the luxury of predicting that a team with a shot at actually winning the national title will do so. At this point though, where all four teams are big, athletic, play great defense, and have championship caliber coaches, I’m going to go without explanations. So without further adieu…
The Semifinals
Louisville over Memphis
North Carolina over Pittsburgh
Championship Game
North Carolina over Louisville 76-71
I look forward to showers of praise and/ or insults in a couple weeks when we see how this all turned out.
